Well I just have to laugh-out-loud. We know what the market is doing:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures fell sharply on Thursday, along with Asian and European equities as well as gold prices and bonds after the Federal Reserve signalled its bond buying could be scaled back later this year. Downbeat Chinese manufacturing data added to investor gloom.
And low and behold the talking heads on business television are giving themselves credit again where none is due. I heard this today:
“We’ve been expecting a selloff because…..”
The because part is bogus, because none of them were expecting any selloff at all, until long after the selling began.
I ‘anticipated’ (rather than predicted since predicting is a waste of time) the stock market would run up for awhile (and it did) and then correct to the tune of about 6% from its highs due to creeping lower bond returns (yields creeping higher) over the past several months. Well, we’re almost there. Since May the S&P500 is down nearly 4%.
Do I really believe it will decline to below the 1600 level (say closer to 1550)? If it doesn’t by early July, then STEP UP! If it does, then STEP UP!
(PS: Just a few hours AFTER I wrote this commentary, the S&P500 fell right through the 1600 level and closed the day at 1588.19)
Even though I expected the inevitability of this short term panic (read older posts), I also have to take Bernanke and his crew at their word. If they don’t need to tighten up, they won’t; and relaxing (as I’ve said in prior commentaries) monetary stimulus is not the same as tightening by a long shot.