Tag Archives: treasuries

Who could have predicted these oil prices? I’ll tell you.

The following prescient quote is from February 2014: The economies of China and India have slowed, and the U.S. is trending towards energy self-sufficiency thanks to production growth nobody envisioned back then.  The question today is why oil prices haven’t … Continue reading

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Are markets in denial? Recent history in one chart!

Are we and the stock market in denial?  Talk of a ‘double-dip’ recession seemed to grow quieter once the correction I predicted back in January ran its course and the market headed to new highs.  I still adhere to my … Continue reading

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China’s Catch-22

I considered the title “bad news is good news” but it seems the phrase ‘Catch-22’ from Joseph Heller’s book is more appropriate. A dictionary describes it as “a problematic situation for which the only solution is denied by a circumstance … Continue reading

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BONDS – Where we go from here! (And what about equities?)

But there may be reason to expect any correction to be mitigated by a FED that wants to simply layoff the accelerator rather than apply the brakes. There have been periods when interest rates have climbed modestly yet stock markets continued to be relatively generous. Continue reading

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Stay in Equities? Would you drive off a cliff?

It’s time again to send up a warning flare. Markets haven’t really responded to warnings from Warren Buffet about bonds, and quotes like the following are becoming more abundant: “Stay invested in equities. The break to all-time new highs in … Continue reading

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Selling bonds to buy stocks? Try door #3 instead!

I have been warning about bonds now for over 6 months. Finally the press is catching on, ensuring that a normal development over the course of a business cycle (whether ignited by natural forces or government intervention) – rising interest … Continue reading

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Bonds at risk, inflation threat and stocks fully valued!

In mid-October the S&P 500 Index was at 1428.50 and I suggested (despite all the pessimism at that time) that if rates and inflation remained steady we could see the index move 20% higher. To be precise I reasoned: For … Continue reading

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