Tag Archives: return

Earnings surprises impotent; Earnings shocks potent!

Evidence supports the notion that strategies targeting ‘earnings surprises’ are relatively impotent these days. I remember twenty years ago (long before these stats were tracked with near precision using quantitative techniques) it became abundantly clear to me that accurately predicting … Continue reading

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BONDS – Where we go from here! (And what about equities?)

But there may be reason to expect any correction to be mitigated by a FED that wants to simply layoff the accelerator rather than apply the brakes. There have been periods when interest rates have climbed modestly yet stock markets continued to be relatively generous. Continue reading

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Stocks & Bonds…the next 100 years.

Trying to determine investment strategy hinges on a seemingly impossible exercize.  Namely, predicting what the world will be like.  The most important metrics are interest rates and real rates of return for the more critical asset class alternatives.  Despite our … Continue reading

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The BIG Bernanke: Bond risk for the duration!

The infatuation of investors, retail and institutional alike with bonds has become ridiculous – more lust than love. The perception that there remains less risk in fixed income cannot be further from reality – especially because of the post-crisis distortions … Continue reading

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Where to shove your Risk Budget!

I was watching business television and an articulate gentleman, the top dog for a rather large retirement fund, was the guest. Perhaps I’ve been living too long in a cocoon, but while discussing the current investment strategy of this large … Continue reading

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Beware a German Bund Fight!

I’d like to revisit a recurring phenomenon – and a reliable contrarian indicator – that befuddles the logical mind yet regularly creates investment opportunities. I’m inspired (again) by this comment I received from a fellow investment professional: “I have read … Continue reading

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Commodities NOT for diversification? Should be obvious!

A published academic study (by Daskalaki and Skiadopoulos in the Journal of Banking & Finance October 2011) that’s getting much attention is entitled: Should Investors Include Commodities in Their Portfolios After All? New Evidence. The following is a quote from … Continue reading

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