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Tag Archives: recession
Market Tanks – Great news for some.
I haven’t published for some time now. Why bother? The economy was tanking, and the market was rallying. Made no sense to someone who’s been managing money for 30+ years, so better to say nothing. However today’s headlines are providing … Continue reading
Posted in markets, Random Thoughts
Tagged bearish, economic data, economy, malvinspooner, maverickinvestors, recession, S&P 500, stock market
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Time to sell tech stocks? Yes!
On March 25th I suggested it was okay to buy tech stocks, and featured a couple of ETF’s. I did buy at the time, and have enjoyed a 50% return in less than 2 months. Let’s face it, with bond … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts, stocks
Tagged coronavirus, ETF's, maverickinvestors, overbought, overvalued, price-to-earnings, recession, sell, stocks, technology
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Decrease in Consumer Spending Alarm Goes Off.
I’ve hinted many times over the years that the most robust leading indicator is the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing index. Last Friday, the report was – not surprisingly – dismal. May is likely to be even worse. We’re … Continue reading
Posted in markets, Random Thoughts
Tagged consumer, economic data, ISM, recession, services, spending
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Why Warren Buffett’s Moves are Bewildering.
Everyone is confused – He bought a bunch of airlines at their peak, and sold them all (was the normally undaunted investor suddenly in a panic?) at the bottom. “Fear is the most contagious disease you can imagine…” said Buffett … Continue reading
Posted in markets, Random Thoughts
Tagged bearish, bond market, bonds, economy, maverickinvestors, recession, stock market, stocks, technology, valuations, warren buffett
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Consumer Sentiment – down but still not down enough.
Over many years I’ve marveled at how reliable consumer sentiment has been as a contrarian indicator. When it reaches rock bottom then the markets, followed by the economy begin to recover from a crisis – whether a recession or financial. … Continue reading
Posted in markets, Random Thoughts
Tagged bond market, confidence, consumer, consumption, economic data, economy, Index, indicators, maverickinvestors, recession, stock market, unemployment
2 Comments
Corporate Bonds not out of the woods yet!
We’ve watched a bit of a bear market rally in stocks, but also saw the same short term narrowing of corporate bond spreads (the difference between the yield offered by corporate bonds versus the virtually risk-free government bonds or treasuries). … Continue reading
Posted in bonds, Random Thoughts
Tagged bearish, bond market, bondholders, bonds, corporate, debt, earnings, economic data, economy, maverickinvestors, recession, recovery, spreads, stock market, treasuries
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Fund flows drive markets, and they suggest many months of misery.
Having (with partners) founded and managed a mutual fund company, I can share some insights when it comes to timing markets. Some say it’s impossible, but the data (and experience) suggest otherwise. For instance, just before the COVID-19 mayhem which … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts, stocks
Tagged bearish, coronavirus, flows, funds, inflows, maverickinvestors, mutual funds, recession, recovery, redemptions, spooner, stock market
4 Comments
How long before this bear market hibernates again?
Most of what I read suggests we’re experiencing a Bear Market rally, and that it will be short-lived. A very respected strategist friend of mind put it this way: It remains our view that stock markets will return to test … Continue reading
Posted in markets, Random Thoughts
Tagged Bear, bearish, economy, interest rates, markets, maverickinvestors, recession, spooner, stock market, stocks
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The Market Conundrum: Buy or Wait!
From a Harvard Business Review Article: Researchers have identified a whole series of such flaws in the way we think in making decisions. Some, like the heuristic for clarity, are sensory misperceptions. Others take the form of biases. Others appear … Continue reading
Posted in markets, Random Thoughts
Tagged Bear, bullish, buy, coronavirus, recession, stock market
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Housing Market – Boom or Bust?
The last recession was unequivocally a housing bust. Home sales plummeted and housing starts hit the skids. But then, the recession was indeed caused by a housing crisis: The mortgage-backed security scam ultimately destroyed the housing market. Today, we’re confronted … Continue reading
Posted in markets, Random Thoughts
Tagged economy, forest products, housing, interest rates, mortgages, real estate, recession, stock market
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