On Feb. 26th, I published my ‘revised’ downside for the S&P 500 of 17%. Well, watching CNBC I discover major indexes are now down 17%. I am patting myself on…
I suggested in prior post that oil would be in trouble due to the COVID-19 impact on fuel demand. The stocks are being clobbered, and one might be tempted to…
Although the price of gold has been on the rise long before the onset of the coronavirus (see my previous article), the FED’s surprise rate cut will be the catalyst…
I often toy with numbers to get a sense of what the risk might be in extreme circumstances (like we’re experiencing in the markets). For instance, what “if” the FAANG…
I’ve invented a new word for what’s coming: Inflession (add to dictionary) is a combination of recession and inflation, characterized by low unemployment and very low interest rates. Sound strange? …
The following prescient quote is from February 2014: The economies of China and India have slowed, and the U.S. is trending towards energy self-sufficiency thanks to production growth nobody envisioned…
Most of the economic data we’ve been seeing (don’t forget it’s historical data) belies the common thinking that the weather has been dampening economic growth. The just reported U.S. GDP…
Are we and the stock market in denial? Talk of a ‘double-dip’ recession seemed to grow quieter once the correction I predicted back in January ran its course and the…
One rule of thumb that works is ‘follow the smart money.’ Based on the most recent data I’ve seen: In the three months to November, $20.4 bln flowed into equities,…
It shouldn’t be surprising that the current ‘mood’ just oozes caution. The market is kind of like the bear (I met one face-to-face in Alaska many moons ago while fishing…
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