Tag Archives: ISM

Decrease in Consumer Spending Alarm Goes Off.

I’ve hinted many times over the years that the most robust leading indicator is the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing index.  Last Friday, the report was – not surprisingly – dismal.  May is likely to be even worse. We’re … Continue reading

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First a correction; and then another banner year for stock markets!

It shouldn’t be surprising that the current ‘mood’ just oozes caution.   The market is kind of like the bear (I met one face-to-face in Alaska many moons ago while fishing in ‘his‘ creek) – at one moment the bear seems content and … Continue reading

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BONDS – Where we go from here!

But there may be reason to expect any correction to be mitigated by a FED that wants to simply layoff the accelerator rather than apply the brakes. There have been periods when interest rates have climbed modestly yet stock markets continued to be relatively generous. Continue reading

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BONDS – Where we go from here! (And what about equities?)

But there may be reason to expect any correction to be mitigated by a FED that wants to simply layoff the accelerator rather than apply the brakes. There have been periods when interest rates have climbed modestly yet stock markets continued to be relatively generous. Continue reading

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Everyone expects a correction; they just haven’t caused one yet!

The release of data that is unexpected can be disruptive to markets as we’ve just experienced, but what causes even more volatility is the impact of surprising data releases on investor expectations.  Bear markets caused by recessions are easier to … Continue reading

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Fund flows point to continued strength in global equity markets!

Back in September I suggested that my favourite contrary leading indicator – the weighting devoted to equities by institutional investors – was pointing to an imminent rally in stock markets. Once again it proved robust. But what’s happened since then? … Continue reading

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Cyclicals Surprise Attack?

Earlier in the month, Alcoa was featured as the ‘second worse performing Dow stock in 2011.’ It was almost universally (in research reports by analysts and the press) expected that the financial results would be terrible, as evidenced by this … Continue reading

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Forget oil, metals, gold – invest in U.S. industry.

I wrote in my posting dated May 17th, entitled Bond rally or feint? Bullish stocks again! the following: “The issue now is does one make decisions based on history or does it make more sense to look through the current ‘correction?’  … Continue reading

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US$ breakout, inflation no issue, it’s all about interest rates.

Ahead of the herd – So I managed to predict the inevitable drop in the oil price (see old postings), foretold the crunch in commodites generally, and am ‘about’ (crossing my fingers) to get my forecast (I posted on March 8th posting) … Continue reading

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Robust earnings, slower economic growth, FED benign…what to do?

  Biker signal for “Slow Down” “WASHINGTON, April 28 (Reuters) – U.S. economic growth likely braked sharply in the first quarter as higher food and gasoline prices crimped consumer spending, but the setback will probably be fleeting given a firming … Continue reading

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