Tag Archives: housing

Since when is the weather an economic barometer? Absurd!

Most of the economic data we’ve been seeing (don’t forget it’s historical data) belies the common thinking that the weather has been dampening economic growth.  The just reported U.S. GDP revision for the 4th quarter (up from 2.4% to 2.6%) … Continue reading

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High Consumer Confidence is bad news for stock market!

The latest consumer confidence release shows a significant improvement. “Rising home prices and a rising stock market are two key factors that are boosting consumer confidence. And a third factor is rising strength in the jobs market. The consumer confidence … Continue reading

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Does divergence of stocks and commodities tell us anything at all?

I read a blurb from Business Insider – entitled One Of The Biggest Arguments Of Fed Haters Is Getting Obliterated Before Our Eyes – discussing the adjacent chart (published on May 15th) that still has me confused. Here is a … Continue reading

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Ready to take on some investment risk? Instead ‘do the opposite!’

For decades I taught younger portfolio managers and trading professionals that the best investment strategy is always to “Do the Opposite.” Virtually every summer this would mean buying while others are selling and bids are few and far between; most … Continue reading

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When to rotate into cyclicals? NOW!

I’ve been preaching for decades (and discussed in both my books ad nauseum) that the right thing to be doing at any point in time is the exact opposite of what everyone else is doing.  If it’s a difficult thing to … Continue reading

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Spread for RISK narrowed; as predicted!

You might recall that in December I posted the adjacent chart, recommending that the spread between equity yields and treasuries was “NUTS” and a narrowing of the spread between more risk and less risk would favour stocks.  It remains in … Continue reading

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Will demographics worsen the debt crisis?

In prior postings, I’ve illustrated that a by-product of the financial mayhem in recent years has been shrinking employment in the financial services sector.  It got me thinking – perhaps there’s more to it than just the single volcanic-like eruption ignited by the … Continue reading

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