Tag Archives: funds

Fund flows drive markets, and they suggest many months of misery.

Having (with partners) founded and managed a mutual fund company, I can share some insights when it comes to timing markets.  Some say it’s impossible, but the data (and experience) suggest otherwise. For instance, just before the COVID-19 mayhem which … Continue reading

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Private Equity/Debt Cockroaches emerging.

I published here (in late January) and on SeekingAlpha.com a warning that the surge in private equity (with with emphasis on “private” or illiquid) in the past decade would reek havoc for institutional and individual investors alike.  We’re beginning to … Continue reading

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Low oil prices – great for China

China’s imported over 10 million barrels of oil daily in 2019 according to the Energy Information Administration.  Ten million barrels PER DAY, every day of the year or 3.65 BILLION barrels per year. So a $20 drop in WTI oil … Continue reading

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Canadian Stock Market earning a gold medal also?

One rule of thumb that works is ‘follow the smart money.’  Based on the most recent data I’ve seen: In the three months to November, $20.4 bln flowed into equities, the fifth largest 3-month total on record, lifting year-to-date total … Continue reading

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China will be the next big surprise!

China was all the rage for a short while, but despite chugging along at a premium growth rate to the rest of the world, investors have pretty much focussed on other markets – the U.S. of course but Japan as well of … Continue reading

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Global resources boom imminent!

“The global demand for resources is beginning to improve, the Far East is growing again, and over the past years, commodity prices are heading in the right direction – as is to be expected at the start of a global … Continue reading

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Why the price of gold skyrocketed and why it’s over!

Everyone is fascinated by the yellow metal.  I’ve been to exploration sites as far north as Nunavut (by the Arctic Ocean) and south to operating mines in Chile.  But determining what it’s worth remains a conundrum to all of us. The price … Continue reading

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The BIG Bernanke: Bond risk for the duration!

The infatuation of investors, retail and institutional alike with bonds has become ridiculous – more lust than love. The perception that there remains less risk in fixed income cannot be further from reality – especially because of the post-crisis distortions … Continue reading

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Ready to take on some investment risk? Instead ‘do the opposite!’

For decades I taught younger portfolio managers and trading professionals that the best investment strategy is always to “Do the Opposite.” Virtually every summer this would mean buying while others are selling and bids are few and far between; most … Continue reading

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How can the stock market be overbought? Nobody’s buying!

Earnings, not wholesale ‘buying’ have been driving the recent rally….please read my previous comments . Those arguing that the “Olympic” rally is a false start have simply missed the boat yet again.  They suggest the stock market is overbought but … Continue reading

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