Tag Archives: forecast

Who could have predicted these oil prices? I’ll tell you.

The following prescient quote is from February 2014: The economies of China and India have slowed, and the U.S. is trending towards energy self-sufficiency thanks to production growth nobody envisioned back then.  The question today is why oil prices haven’t … Continue reading

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Stocks & Bonds…the next 100 years.

Trying to determine investment strategy hinges on a seemingly impossible exercize.  Namely, predicting what the world will be like.  The most important metrics are interest rates and real rates of return for the more critical asset class alternatives.  Despite our … Continue reading

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How I predicted the decline in GOLD price!

The gold price has declined from the roughly $1750 level back in February to less than $1550 (more than 10% in 3 months).  It could be a screaming buy, but I’d discourage anyone from jumping in at this juncture.  What … Continue reading

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How to predict the future – on the back of an envelope!

Fortune telling isn’t as difficult as you might think. A good prognosticor will combine some highly probable occurances (“you will meet someone”) with some razzle dazzle (“and become romantically involved”). Forecasting the stock market is easy enough as well. A … Continue reading

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Understand stock market in one minute!

LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) – Gold buckled under pressure from a stronger dollar on Tuesday after the Greek prime minister shocked financial markets by calling a referendum on an agreed bailout package and as the collapse of broker MF Global … Continue reading

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MARKET CORRECTION — The day after you buy stocks!

FORECAST – Sunny with Chance of Showers I was asked to speak at the Alternative Investment Conference in Calgary over the weekend. As you know, I don’t believe in predictions (for reasons covered at length in my new book); I … Continue reading

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Inflation, Gold & Scotland

I am at the CFA Conference in beautiful Edinburg, Scotland. A survey of the large body (1200 delegates from all over the world) asking what is your biggest worry – got “inflation” as the overwhelming response. I consider (based on … Continue reading

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