Tag Archives: expectations

Are markets in denial? Recent history in one chart!

Are we and the stock market in denial?  Talk of a ‘double-dip’ recession seemed to grow quieter once the correction I predicted back in January ran its course and the market headed to new highs.  I still adhere to my … Continue reading

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First a correction; and then another banner year for stock markets!

It shouldn’t be surprising that the current ‘mood’ just oozes caution.   The market is kind of like the bear (I met one face-to-face in Alaska many moons ago while fishing in ‘his‘ creek) – at one moment the bear seems content and … Continue reading

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Everyone expects a correction; they just haven’t caused one yet!

The release of data that is unexpected can be disruptive to markets as we’ve just experienced, but what causes even more volatility is the impact of surprising data releases on investor expectations.  Bear markets caused by recessions are easier to … Continue reading

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Bonds at risk, inflation threat and stocks fully valued!

In mid-October the S&P 500 Index was at 1428.50 and I suggested (despite all the pessimism at that time) that if rates and inflation remained steady we could see the index move 20% higher. To be precise I reasoned: For … Continue reading

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Why the price of gold skyrocketed and why it’s over!

Everyone is fascinated by the yellow metal.  I’ve been to exploration sites as far north as Nunavut (by the Arctic Ocean) and south to operating mines in Chile.  But determining what it’s worth remains a conundrum to all of us. The price … Continue reading

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Cyclicals Surprise Attack?

Earlier in the month, Alcoa was featured as the ‘second worse performing Dow stock in 2011.’ It was almost universally (in research reports by analysts and the press) expected that the financial results would be terrible, as evidenced by this … Continue reading

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Great News! The consumer is miserable and shopping!

On August 31st, when we learned that consumer confidence had plummeted to rock bottom levels, I said (in the posting Consumer – lower confidence is GOOD news!): “What’s important, is that optimism concerning stock markets is far more warranted when … Continue reading

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