I haven’t published for some time now. Why bother? The economy was tanking, and the market was rallying. Made no sense to someone who’s been managing money for 30+ years,…
Everyone is confused – He bought a bunch of airlines at their peak, and sold them all (was the normally undaunted investor suddenly in a panic?) at the bottom. “Fear…
Over many years I’ve marveled at how reliable consumer sentiment has been as a contrarian indicator. When it reaches rock bottom then the markets, followed by the economy begin to…
We’ve watched a bit of a bear market rally in stocks, but also saw the same short term narrowing of corporate bond spreads (the difference between the yield offered by…
Most of what I read suggests we’re experiencing a Bear Market rally, and that it will be short-lived. A very respected strategist friend of mind put it this way: It…
Apparently Goldman strategists expect profits for companies in the S&P 500 will decline 33% this year, and rebound 55% next year. It implies a V-shaped recovery. Let’s forget that 2021…
Seems there’s been a run on marijuana as folks stuck at home look for some relief: Shares in most of the big cannabis companies are up sharply this week following…
The last recession was unequivocally a housing bust. Home sales plummeted and housing starts hit the skids. But then, the recession was indeed caused by a housing crisis: The mortgage-backed…
My original estimate (February 3rd) was simply a P/E multiple for the S&P 500 of 20X zero growth in 2020 of earnings. I expected the coronavirus to have a devastating…
The recession (we’re undoubtedly in already) is not the worst of our woes. It’s unlikely the FED would have taken such drastic measures because of the coronavirus or even the…
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