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Tag Archives: data
Earnings surprises impotent; Earnings shocks potent!
Evidence supports the notion that strategies targeting ‘earnings surprises’ are relatively impotent these days. I remember twenty years ago (long before these stats were tracked with near precision using quantitative techniques) it became abundantly clear to me that accurately predicting … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged 500, Canfor, correlation, data, earnings, energy, errors, estimates, excess, financial, ford, forest, investors, Kerkorian, market, materials, Morgan Stanley, optimistic, paper, pessimistic, predicted, products, quantitative, rally, return, s&p, sectors, shock, stock, surprise, tech, telecom
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Everyone expects a correction; they just haven’t caused one yet!
The release of data that is unexpected can be disruptive to markets as we’ve just experienced, but what causes even more volatility is the impact of surprising data releases on investor expectations. Bear markets caused by recessions are easier to … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged ADP, Bear, bubble, commerce, correction, data, department, dividend, employment, expectations, factory, federal, Index, industrial, Institute of Supply Management, inventories, investor, investors, ISM, jobs, mal, malvin, manufacturing, markets, maverick, maverickinvestors.com, orders, PMI, post-crisis, production, pullback, recessions, reserve, shipments, slowdown, spooner, strategists, system, yield
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Olympic Rally or the Real McCoy?
Back in early June, I posted Yogi Berra – as good an investment strategist as any! in which I suggested : “If financial turmoil continues unabated and rates remain extremely low, things could go very well for the stock markets, especially … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged 500, bloomberg, bonds, confidence, consensus, consumer, data, demand, divdends, duress, earnings, economists, equity, europe's, financial, futures, global, Indices, interest, investors, low, mal, malvin, markets, maverick, maverickinvestors.com, mortgage, olympics, prime, profitability, rallly, rates, s&p, spooner, stock, treasuries, turmoil, U.S. homes, unemployment, yield
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Behavioural psychologists DON’T understand investment industry.
Most people would agree with the following statement by celebrated behavioural psychologist Daniel Kahneman – from his best selling book describing new insights into how good and bad decisions are made: “Why do investors, both amateur and professional, stubbornly believe … Continue reading
Posted in Random Thoughts
Tagged asset, behaviour, capital, cramer, daniel kahneman, data, decision, decision-making, economic, efficient, fast, finance, financial, frontier, growth, Information, investment, mal, malvin, market, markets, mathematics, maverick, maverickinvestor, maverickinvestors.com, model, momentum, portfolio, prices, pricing, profits, psychologists, psychology, slow, spooner, statistics, stock, theory, thinking, thought, value
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Bond rally or feint? Bullish stocks again!
What’s changed between now and a year ago? There’s no shortage of people that think nothing much has changed. Greece and Portugal are still up the creek, and if anything they owe more money than before so things are worse. This … Continue reading
