Tag Archives: data

Earnings surprises impotent; Earnings shocks potent!

Evidence supports the notion that strategies targeting ‘earnings surprises’ are relatively impotent these days. I remember twenty years ago (long before these stats were tracked with near precision using quantitative techniques) it became abundantly clear to me that accurately predicting … Continue reading

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Everyone expects a correction; they just haven’t caused one yet!

The release of data that is unexpected can be disruptive to markets as we’ve just experienced, but what causes even more volatility is the impact of surprising data releases on investor expectations.  Bear markets caused by recessions are easier to … Continue reading

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Ready to take on some investment risk? Instead ‘do the opposite!’

For decades I taught younger portfolio managers and trading professionals that the best investment strategy is always to “Do the Opposite.” Virtually every summer this would mean buying while others are selling and bids are few and far between; most … Continue reading

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Olympic Rally or the Real McCoy?

Back in early June, I posted Yogi Berra – as good an investment strategist as any! in which I suggested : “If financial turmoil continues unabated and rates remain extremely low, things could go very well for the stock markets, especially … Continue reading

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Behavioural psychologists DON’T understand investment industry.

Most people would agree with the following statement by celebrated behavioural psychologist Daniel Kahneman – from his best selling book describing new insights into how good and bad decisions are made: “Why do investors, both amateur and professional, stubbornly believe … Continue reading

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Is the market on thin ice?

This morning I read this in a note from a trader friend of mine: “Activity still too mixed to suggest we’re going higher – like walking on ice – you don’t know when it will crack so I would prefer … Continue reading

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Bond rally or feint? Bullish stocks again!

What’s changed between now and a year ago?  There’s no shortage of people that think nothing much has changed.  Greece and Portugal are still up the creek, and if anything they owe more money than before so things are worse.  This … Continue reading

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