From a Harvard Business Review Article: Researchers have identified a whole series of such flaws in the way we think in making decisions. Some, like the heuristic for clarity, are…
Are we and the stock market in denial? Talk of a ‘double-dip’ recession seemed to grow quieter once the correction I predicted back in January ran its course and the…
The latest consumer confidence release shows a significant improvement. “Rising home prices and a rising stock market are two key factors that are boosting consumer confidence. And a third factor…
On March 20th, I published the following quote in my regular money.ca blog entitled: Reacting to headlines is perilous! Most worrisome: Jim Cramer (wait long enough and you’ll eventually be…
Studies examining former market calls (like checking the rear view mirror) of experts suggest that the ability of ‘gurus’ to predict markets is less than 50%. Slightly worse than flipping a coin. …
Consumer confidence is often mistaken as a leading indicator. My experience over many years is that the measure is used at times to rationalize irrational bullishness – when the brain…
In the spirit of ‘do-the-opposite’ I’m thinking the worst may be over for the estranged ‘mutual funds’ that invest in U.S. stocks. My first indicator, is that finally cash is exiting…
I wrote in my posting dated May 17th, entitled Bond rally or feint? Bullish stocks again! the following: “The issue now is does one make decisions based on history or does…
I am at the CFA Conference in beautiful Edinburg, Scotland. A survey of the large body (1200 delegates from all over the world) asking what is your biggest worry –…
I just heard on the TV a disussion about the U.S. housing market these words: “There’s no hope of a recover in sight!” As I hinted in my previous posting,…
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