Tag Archives: 500

The Day After – Catalyst for resumption of Bull Market will be a surprise!

I provided a rather winded explanation in my previous discussion about why the current correction was inevitable.  Since then, the S&P 500 has declined roughly 3%.  It is likely to get worse before it gets better? My own estimation was … Continue reading

Posted in Random Thoughts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

First a correction; and then another banner year for stock markets!

It shouldn’t be surprising that the current ‘mood’ just oozes caution.   The market is kind of like the bear (I met one face-to-face in Alaska many moons ago while fishing in ‘his‘ creek) – at one moment the bear seems content and … Continue reading

Posted in Random Thoughts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments

Earnings surprises impotent; Earnings shocks potent!

Evidence supports the notion that strategies targeting ‘earnings surprises’ are relatively impotent these days. I remember twenty years ago (long before these stats were tracked with near precision using quantitative techniques) it became abundantly clear to me that accurately predicting … Continue reading

Posted in Random Thoughts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

“We’ve been expecting a sell-off because..” What BUNK!

Well I just have to laugh-out-loud.  We know what the market is doing: NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures fell sharply on Thursday, along with Asian and European equities as well as gold prices and bonds after the Federal … Continue reading

Posted in Random Thoughts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

China will be the next big surprise!

China was all the rage for a short while, but despite chugging along at a premium growth rate to the rest of the world, investors have pretty much focussed on other markets – the U.S. of course but Japan as well of … Continue reading

Posted in Random Thoughts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Did your strategist predict this market? Get a new strategist!

Below is a commentary I published on March 8th. Like Warren Buffet, I was especially worried about the bond market. During the months before I posted the article, huge inflows into fixed income funds took place. Suddenly investors began selling … Continue reading

Posted in Random Thoughts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

BONDS – Where we go from here! (And what about equities?)

But there may be reason to expect any correction to be mitigated by a FED that wants to simply layoff the accelerator rather than apply the brakes. There have been periods when interest rates have climbed modestly yet stock markets continued to be relatively generous. Continue reading

Posted in Random Thoughts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment