(Bloomberg) — In the equity market, fear of missing out seems to be overshadowing fear of all that’s wrong with the economy. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says pessimism will soon get the upper hand and send the S&P 500 Index down almost 20% in the next three months.
Fiscal and monetary support over the past few weeks of the coronavirus pandemic successfully warded off a financial crisis, but a return to economic normalcy is still a long ways away and investors have gotten ahead of themselves, the bank’s chief U. S. equity strategist, David Kostin, wrote in a report.
Financial, economic and political risks darken the outlook for domestic equities, Goldman warns. The bank cites the lack of flattening in the U. S. infection curve outside of New York, what promises to be a lengthy re-start process, a 50% hit to buybacks in 2020 and the risk of higher corporate taxes and de facto consumption taxes if U.S.-China trade tensions bubble up again.
“A single catalyst may not spark a pullback, but a number of concerns and risks exist that we believe, and our client discussions confirm, investors are downplaying,” Kostin wrote. Goldman says the S&P 500 will probably drop to 2,400 over the next three months before it rebounds to 3,000 by year end. The index slumped 0.5% Monday to 2,914 as of 9:45 a.m. in New York.