Time to buy base metals says expert!

Okay perhaps not such an ‘expert’ but I do believe it’s time we let Europe deal with its own financial woes and begin making sensible bets again. The global economy is chugging along (with a broadly based earnings recovery in the U.S. leading the charge) – if I had a job, I’d be having the conversation in this video.

In a posting back on April 26th, I said the following:

“The first wave of rising commodity prices (more than five years ago) was indeed due to demand outstripping supply, but TODAY I believe a sort of bubble is emerging ….gold and commodities are being called inflation hedges because the pure fundamentals no longer support the trend. If we don’t run into a bout of hyperinflation, then the bubble will burst. “

I took some flack from Mr. Jim Rogers when I met him in Scotland about then. He said it was no bubble, but perhaps the disagreement was more semantics….I compromised and suggested I meant it was a mini-bubble. Nevertheless, I was far more right. The copper price (and much else besides) plunged in the third quarter, and after so many years specializing in resources it came as no surprise. Copper runs up (like earlier this year) on Chinese buying, drops like a stone when they realize they’re simply paying too much and stop buying (relying on stockpiles) and usually they resume in the third quarter and the copper price rebounds until March/April.

The time to go “all in” was likely back at the end of September, which always seems to be the worst month of any given year – at least my slowly diminishing memory recollects it that way.

Look for commodity stocks to continue to bounce in December, and in January & February all those fund managers who want to be seen with a decent weight in a strong sector will continue buying.

Best stocks to bet on in my opinion (which is worth every penny you’re paying for it) would be those more leveraged to base metals than golds.

Invest to Live, Live to Ride

About Mal Spooner

Malvin Spooner is a veteran money manager, former CEO of award-winning investment fund management boutique he founded. He recently authored A Maverick Investor's Guidebook which blends his experience touring across the heartland in the United States with valuable investing tips and stories. He has been quoted and published for many years in business journals, newspapers and has been featured on many television programs over his career. An avid motorcycle enthusiast, and known across Canada as a part-time musician performing rock ‘n’ roll for charity, Mal is known for his candour and non-traditional (‘maverick’) thinking when discussing financial markets. His previous book published by Insomniac Press — Resources Rock: How to Invest in the Next Global Boom in Natural Resources which he authored with Pamela Clark — predicted the resources boom back in early 2004.
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